DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 16Z MON 24/02 - 06Z TUE 25/02 2003
ISSUED: 24/02 16:42Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

SYNOPSIS

WELL DEVELOPED OMEGA FLOW PATTERN STILL DOMINANT OVER EUROPE ... WITH TWO COLD LONG-WAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE AND NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. COLD AND DRY AIRMASSES CAN BE FOUND IN MOST PARTS OF EUROPE EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREMELY WESTERN EUROPE, WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.

DISCUSSION

...EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN...
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BUT STILL CONTINUES. RADIOSONDE DATA WITHIN THESE AIRMASS SHOW A MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH LOW DEWPOINTS. SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS FORMED ODER THE MEDITERRANEAN WATER SURFACE, BUT THUNDERSTORMS DID NOT OCCUR IN THE LAST HOURS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SHEAR PROFILES DOES NOT LOOK FAVOURABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

...WESTERN EUROPE...
WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME, SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERNEASTERN ATLANTIC AND THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LOW AS DRY AIR IS ADVECTED WITH SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER, AND MOST STORMS ARE EVOLVING ELEVATED. SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR ISN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST.

#